EZB: Isabel Schnabel steht vor Wechsel zum IWF

Isabel Schnabel might leave the European Central Bank (ECB) prematurely to take up the role of managing markets at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to recent reports. The German ECB director is in negotiations with the IMF to assume this position, with the German government considering a potential major reshuffle at the ECB's helm.

However, Schnabel would no longer play a role in this reshuffle if she leaves the ECB for the IMF, as she would be a final contender for the next ECB presidency. Christine Lagarde, the current ECB chief, is rumored to leave her position by October 2027 to become the head of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The ECB also needs a new chief economist by June 2027, as the eight-year term of Irish economist Philip Lane ends.

Schnabel's term at the ECB ends at the end of 2027. The ECB has stated that the hiring process for the new chief economist is underway, and they will comment once it is concluded. There are legal concerns about Schnabel's eligibility for the IMF position, as her role in the ECB's directorate is limited to eight years, effectively disqualifying her for a second term.

In the German government, there is no consensus on nominating Joachim Nagel, the current ECB president, for the new presidency. While Nagel has expressed his willingness to take the position, the Finance Ministry is hesitant to propose him. Nagel, an SPD party member, has proven his independence over the years, as demonstrated by his criticism of the Bundesbank's stance on the federal government's budget policy.

In the chancellor's office, there are reservations against Nagel due to his support for Euro-Bonds, a move that does not align with the traditional conservative stance of the Bundesbank. Another barrier for Nagel would be the coordination of power on the European stage, as Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU Commission, is expected to remain in her position until 2029.

This could complicate Germany's chances of securing the ECB presidency, with both positions being occupied simultaneously. The current situation highlights the importance of Lagarde's early departure from the ECB and the timing of Nagel's potential candidacy, as stated by a government representative. Ultimately, the decision rests with Chancellor Merz, who must weigh the prospects of Nagel against the potential impact on Germany's global standing.