European Central Bank: September hike with cautious path – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro team, including Pooja Kumra, expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% in September. They see limited forward guidance, with the Governing Council reiterating its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to increase its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September, according to TD Securities. The bank's macro team, including Pooja Kumra, anticipates a cautious approach from the ECB's Governing Council, which will likely continue its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting policy stance. The team expects limited forward guidance and does not anticipate the ECB providing significant insights on the next policy phase.
The recent upward pressure on natural gas prices, despite oil prices remaining lower than in June, is expected to have a small upside effect on inflation in 2027 and 2028. The headlining inflation forecasts for 2026 are projected to be slightly lowered, but inflation risks remain on the optimistic side. The Middle East conflict remains unresolved, casting uncertainty on the ECB's future policy decisions.
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