El bitcoin cambia de referente en su última sacudida

The abrupt surge of bitcoin, moving from around 60,000 to 80,000 dollars, has introduced a new key reference point for the majority of cryptocurrencies, according to analysts at Citi who highlight the change in their correlations with other assets. Crypto investors have a wide range of variables that provide significant clues about the direction the bitcoin should take.

Over the past few weeks, the top positions in this ranking of guides or references have undergone a substantial shift, as shown by Citi analysts in a specific report on the digital assets market. Citi points out that stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have stopped being the most accurate proxy for crypto investors. As indicated by Citi, the primary macroeconomic driver pushing cryptocurrencies has shifted from variable income to gold.

In the current context, gold thus becomes the key reference when evaluating the behavior of bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold." This change in correlations occurred during the period when bitcoin's price settled a more than two-month block in the 60,000 dollar range, and suddenly jumped to the 80,000 dollar level. The rally of up to 30% witnessed by bitcoin in August occurred in parallel with a sharp resurgence in gold.

The precious metal, accustomed to much less extreme movements than bitcoin, surged by over 15% also in August. The last few days have further heightened the parallels between the price movements of gold and bitcoin. Since the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, where the Fed president surprised with a tougher tone than expected, gold and bitcoin have shared drops of 3% in their balances in the last week, with the precious metal below 4,500 dollars per ounce, and the cryptocurrency near 78,000 dollars.

The current prices, after the August upticks, reflect a multiple of bitcoin of 17.5 ounces of gold, below the 2020-2025 average. The origin of this increase in correlation between bitcoin and gold has been the fears about debt activated in the markets, according to Citi. The investment firm highlights that the announcement of a debt buyback by the US Treasury has reinforced the narrative of currency devaluation (dollar), and all this has strengthened the correlation of bitcoin with gold.

Following alerts about debt and the subsequent announcement of a buyback by the US Treasury, we observe that correlations between cryptocurrencies and variable income have decreased over one and three-month horizons, the Citi analysts detail. At the same time, Citi flags that correlations with the US dollar and real yields have become increasingly negative.

But above all, the US bank stresses that during August's rally, the correlation of cryptocurrencies with gold increased considerably, reflecting the narrative of monetary devaluation.