Black Sea disruptions push wheat to record high; Australia, North America demand up

Wheat prices reached record highs due to disruptions in Black Sea shipments, which were caused by ongoing tensions in the region. Global wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine began to dwindle as buyers sought alternative sources to maintain their supplies. Platts, a division of S&P Global Energy, reported the Milling Wheat Marker at $214 per metric ton on September 1, reflecting the low demand for FOB wheat and the cautious approach taken by ships operating from deep-sea ports.

Alternative origins, such as Australian APW, were priced at a $98 per metric ton premium compared to the Milling Wheat Marker, while CWRS FOB Vancouver wheat prices reached a peak of $117 per metric ton. If the supply constraints persist through the end of the year, Russia's wheat exports could plummet below 40 million metric tons, and Ukraine's wheat exports might amount to around 10 million metric tons.

Australian wheat prices surged to record highs amid the shortage of Black Sea wheat in traditional markets like Southeast Asia and Bangladesh. The Australian Standard White, or ASW1, rose by $35 per metric ton to $301 per metric ton FOB Kwinana on September 1, the highest since March 7, 2023. Similarly, Australian Premium White, or APW, increased by $40 per metric ton to $312 per metric ton FOB Kwinana on September 1, marking the highest level since March 29, 2023.

As Southeast Asian buyers switched to earlier shipment dates of September and October, a significant demand remained for shipments in November and beyond, keeping the price spreads between old and new crops stable. A Singapore-based miller expressed concern that nobody wanted to sell wheat, as everyone anticipated the market would continue to rise. Southeast Asian buyers were already allocating their resources to November/December shipments and would be waiting for more information regarding the harvest.

The disruptions in the Black Sea have also caused demand to shift towards North America. Canadian and US market participants anticipated incremental purchases in the Pacific Northwest and Vancouver, although tight export capacities and elevated prices might limit further gains. Canadian traders confirmed that the Black Sea situation was impacting their operations in real-time, with some expecting Pacific Northwest to receive low-to-mid protein business, and Vancouver to receive high-protein business.

Platts CWRS 13.5% FOB Vancouver wheat was assessed at $331.34 per metric ton on September 1, the highest price since August 2023. Canada is entering the new marketing year with a robust export program, projecting nearly 24 million metric tons of wheat exports (excluding durum) for 2025-26, which is the highest on record and a 2% increase from the previous year. Major destinations include Indonesia, China, Japan, and the US.

While demand has emerged in recent weeks, including interest from Taiwan, China, Japanese MAFF purchases, requests from Bangladesh, and some European interest, additional nearby export opportunities remain constrained due to capacity limitations. Traders reported that October shipments are consistently full or nearly full, and some sellers are holding their basis despite the recent surge in futures prices.

Market participants acknowledged that demand was subdued at the current levels, with Asian buyers lagging and reluctant to engage at these prices. As uncertainty continues to surround Black Sea exports, traders will closely monitor the impact of alternative flows, particularly from Australia and North America, on maintaining global tightness.