Amazon projects it's on track to deliver nearly 90% of its own US packages

Amazon projects its delivery network will handle nearly 90% of its US packages by 2029. The company's own delivery network is projected to handle 86.3% of US packages in 2027, 87.4% in 2028, and 88.7% in 2029, according to Amazon's internal planning document. This shift is occurring faster than Amazon had previously anticipated, with its earlier estimates putting first-party delivery at 83.8% of US packages in 2027 and 85% in 2028.

Amazon's latest projections anticipate roughly 12.2 billion US packages to be handled by its delivery network in 2027, rising to 15.8 billion in 2029. This growth in Amazon's delivery network comes at the expense of traditional carriers like UPS and the US Postal Service (USPS). The share of packages handled by USPS is expected to decline from about 10% in 2027 to 8% by 2029, based on Amazon's most recent forecast.

The reduction in USPS's share stems from a recent agreement between Amazon and USPS over a new delivery contract, which establishes a minimum of 1.27 billion packages for USPS, down from a previous minimum of 1.4 billion packages.

While Amazon's own delivery network handles most of the projected package growth, the company still relies on independent Delivery Service Partners and Amazon Flex contractors for much of its last-mile delivery. Amazon's projections expect significant growth in its Sub 2-Day delivery network, with its share of first-party package volume projected to expand from 17.1% in 2027 to 21.3% in 2029. The company has committed over $4 billion to expand its rural delivery network by the end of 2026.

As Amazon's own delivery network expands, it anticipates traditional carriers like USPS and UPS will handle an increasingly smaller share of its packages. The company's latest forecast shows UPS handling approximately 1.4% of US packages by 2029, down from about 1.8% in 2027. FedEx's role in Amazon's delivery network is minimal, accounting for about 0.4% of US packages.