Weak sea-surface temperature gradients may fuel stronger tropical cyclones
The fact that the ocean gets colder as you go deeper is fairly intuitive, but a similar gradient exists along the surface of the ocean, even at scales of 1 kilometer to tens of kilometers. A new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that this horizontal gradient significantly contributes to the intensity of tropical cyclones, providing a potential tool…
Sea-surface temperature variations on a small scale can play a significant role in the intensity of tropical cyclones, according to a new study. These gradients, which exist over short distances of 1 kilometer to tens of kilometers, affect how much cooling occurs in the ocean surface before a storm arrives. Cyclones crossing areas with weak gradients tend to cause less cooling and become about 40% stronger than those crossing areas with strong gradients.
Rapidly intensifying cyclones, which are particularly challenging to forecast, are associated with below-average gradients in about 60% of cases, and this proportion increases with cyclone intensity, reaching nearly 70% for Category 4 storms. The findings suggest that improvements in predicting and warning about these storms could greatly benefit coastal communities, as tropical cyclones cause over 10,000 deaths and $26 billion in economic damage globally each year.
The study also highlights the need for better understanding and modeling of small-scale processes that drive ocean mixing and storm intensification.
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