Tres pilares de la Bolsa para contrarrestar la presión de deuda y petróleo

Three fundamental supports are identified by UBS to counteract the pressure of debt and oil, which are causing concerns as September begins. Despite the exerted pressures, UBS highlights three key factors that should promote gains in European variable income. The additional pressures at the start of September have reinforced warnings about the weak seasonal trend of the month.

The sources of uncertainty for European variable income emerge from several fronts, starting with short-term pressure from energy prices, bond yields, and the prospect of another interest rate hike by the ECB. However, UBS analysts maintain a favorable view of the European variable income amidst these latent pressures. This optimism is based on three pillars: economic improvement, strong corporate profits, and reasonable valuations.

Despite rising energy and financing costs, UBS values data suggesting that Europe's industry is absorbing the energy shock better than feared, and the cyclical recovery remains intact. Recent activity data indicates that Europe's industrial recovery is gaining momentum, as shown by the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, which rose to 52.7 in August from 51.9 in July, reaching its highest level since May 2022.

UBS highlights that new orders increased at the fastest pace since early 2022, while production rose to 53.3, a 54-month high. The rally in the stock market, driven by corporate profits, continues to be a strong catalyst for European variable income. UBS analysts point to the strength of the latest results, published for the second quarter, showing corporate profits growing 22% year-over-year.

The net proportion of companies exceeding estimates reached 25%, compared to the historical average of 16%. UBS also sees an encouraging outlook for profits, with a 15% expected increase in earnings per share for the eurozone in 2026-2027. This growth is driven by the rebound in manufacturing and investment in AI, electrification, defense, and production relocation.

While macroeconomic and corporate variables support the European variable income, UBS maintains that reasonable valuations are crucial for new gains. According to UBS, the market is currently trading at around 15 times projected earnings and about 14.2 times our 2027 profit forecast. The analysts emphasize that these valuations are supported by improving results rather than multiple expansion.

UBS identifies sectors and markets with greater exposure to the cyclical recovery of the region, as well as the improvement in profits and structural investment. These include the industrial sector, banking, information technology, discretionary consumption, healthcare services, and Germany, with a focus on automation and robotics.