Today – Das Interview: Commerzbank-Chefin zu möglicher Fusion mit Unicredit: „Sollten es nicht verbaseln“ – Abschied möglich

Franz von Metzler, a prominent figure, expresses his skepticism about an impending Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble. He notes that while investments in AI-related companies are substantial, the companies themselves demonstrate exceptional earning power. Notable companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are only the tip of the iceberg, with other businesses benefiting from the AI boom and outperforming even high revenue and margin targets.

Von Metzler believes that a significant event, such as the IPO of companies like OpenAI, could trigger a massive market correction. However, he is optimistic about the market conditions for the remainder of the year, provided that companies continue to generate solid earnings. He highlights the potential for increased investment in European markets, as the US companies have historically been valued higher than their European counterparts.

The current risk, in his opinion, lies in a major escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran. Such a development would have a severe impact on the markets. Inflation, primarily driven by oil prices in the short term, is expected to return to the European Central Bank's target range in the medium term.

The issue of growing sovereign debt across all industrialized nations is acknowledged, but the key factor is the structure of the debt. Von Metzler emphasizes that the situation becomes truly concerning when the proportion of external creditors becomes excessive. In the United States, the U.S. dollar's status as the leading reserve currency remains secure and unlikely to change.

Regarding the AI bubble, von Metzler firmly states that he does not believe one is imminent. Although investments are substantial, the underlying companies show remarkable profit generation capabilities. He suggests that the IPO of AI-focused companies like OpenAI could generate significant investor interest, with US companies often being valued higher than their European equivalents.