Syria’s restrained approach to Israel carries risks

In the past few weeks, Israel and Turkey – two of the most powerful military forces in the region – have engaged in a fierce exchange of harsh words. This escalation stems from Israel's recent airstrikes on a Turkish airbase in northern Syria, which Israeli officials claimed was an effort to prevent Turkish forces from deploying there to aid in rebuilding Syria's army.

However, US intelligence found no evidence to support this claim, and both Turkey and Syria denied any such plan. Since then, tensions between these two countries have escalated, with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu branding Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an "antisemitic tyrant," while Erdoğan accused Israel of being a "terror state."

The situation has further intensified with reports of Turkish warships approaching Israeli vessels in the Mediterranean Sea, forcing them to change course. Despite both countries expressing their desire to avoid war, it's important to understand why these two close US allies, one a NATO member and the other a nuclear power, are now circling each other over Syria.

The underlying issue lies in Syria's political transformation. Following the collapse of dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024, a rebel army led by then-President Ahmed al-Sharaa overthrew Assad. Turkey, acting on Syria's invitation, has become a significant military partner to al-Sharaa's government, training and equipping their army.

Meanwhile, Israel has not intervened in Syria but has asserted its right to maintain a "security zone" within the country, ostensibly to protect its northern frontier. This distinction in actions, despite both countries having forces inside Syria, has become a bone of contention. Turkey's role in Syria has been seen by Israel as an expansion into central Syria, potentially limiting its own freedom to operate in Syrian skies.

Conversely, Turkey sees itself as a protector of Syria's territorial integrity and a check against Kurdish separatists. This power struggle in Syria could have significant implications for regional stability. The UN Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity of any state, and Israel's presence in Syria is seen by many as a violation of this law.

Meanwhile, Syria's right to choose its allies and maintain an army is firmly rooted in international law. As the situation remains volatile, the key to preventing a potential conflict lies with the United States, a close ally of both nations. US envoy Tom Barrack has been attempting to mediate peace talks between the two countries, but the risk of miscalculation and open conflict remains high.

Ultimately, the core issue remains the right of the Syrian people to determine their own future, free from external interference.