Russia and Belarus: A Satellite with Room to Maneuver

The story of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet region. Following the invasion in February 2022, neighboring countries like Belarus sought to distance themselves from Moscow. However, Belarus's approach stands apart from the others. The turning point for Belarus came in 2020, when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held an election whose outcome is still disputed.

The question at hand was whether Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya won outright in the first round or if her decisive lead was limited to Minsk. Lukashenko's initial disapproval of the result led him to seek Moscow's support, which he received, resulting in a loss of power and loyalty to Vladimir Putin. Throughout 2022, Belarus maintained a facade of solidarity with Russia in the face of a common Western threat.

This allowed Lukashenko to avoid awkward questions about the 2020 election results and position himself as a staunch supporter of Russian aggression. By 2024, Minsk had regained some room for maneuver, enabling it to pressure Russian media to share common enemies with Belarus. Despite contradictions surrounding the Union State, the two governments still face challenges in fulfilling the 1996 promise of a single economic space with shared institutions.