Prueba de fuego para Inditex, que cotiza cerca de récord

Inditex, founded by Amancio Ortega, is set to release its fiscal first half 2026 results on Wednesday, September 9th. Analysts expect the fashion giant to report net profits exceeding €3 billion, up from €2.791 billion a year prior, and a cash reserve surpassing €13 billion according to Bloomberg consensus. The company's stock reached a record high of €59.10 in August and closed at €57.50 yesterday, with Citi advising to buy shares before the results.

The firm anticipates strong sales and robust commercial behavior. Citigroup highlights its efficiency in margins and potential extra earnings from duties of up to €250 million for the fiscal year 2026. Expectations of a 10% increase in local sales during the second quarter and a possible improvement in the gross margin support the stock's upward trend.

Favorable tailwinds from the dollar depreciation are expected to offset rising freight costs, according to Citi. Bestinver Securities has upgraded its valuation to between €62.7 and €67 per share, indicating a 16.5% potential increase over the next 12 months. Analyst Patricia Cifuentes from Bestinver Securities expects solid cash generation, improved profitability, and attractive returns for shareholders with dividend yields above 3% between 2026 and 2028.

The firm anticipates Inditex's return on invested capital (ROCE) to climb to around 40% by 2028, moving from an extraordinary investment phase in 2024-2025 to a focus on efficiency. Dividends are seen favorably, with analysts estimating a dividend yield of over 3% for the period of 2026-2028. Bloomberg forecasts a 3.20% return for 2026 and 3.78% for 2028.

Cifuentes warns that August's intra-year comparison (beginning of the third quarter) will be tough, potentially causing a temporary moderation in growth and a slight adjustment to the stock price, which should be viewed as an attractive buying opportunity.