Philippine peso hits record low as rising oil prices pressure Asian assets
The Philippine peso slid to a record low on Wednesday, leading losses among Asian currencies as a global bond market rout and higher oil prices following renewed US attacks on Iran rattled risk sentiment across the region. MSCI’s global EM currency index slipped 0.2%, putting it on track for its worst session in a month and to snap a 10-session winning streak if current trends hold. Assets across…
On Wednesday, the Philippine peso plummeted to a record low against the US dollar, joining a downward trend among Asian currencies. This decline was fueled by a global bond market slump and increased oil prices due to renewed US attacks on Iran. MSCI's global emerging market currency index slipped 0.2%, setting the stage for its worst day in a month and potentially ending a 10-day winning streak if the trend persists.
Emerging Asia's assets faced pressure as investors sold off risk assets following a surge in US Treasury yields to multi-year highs and oil prices surpassing the $95-a-barrel threshold. The Philippine peso plummeted to 62.652 per US dollar, suffering due to its unfavorable external position, low real rates, and the impact of high oil prices and potential increased capital goods imports.
Maybank analysts forecasted that the peso would continue to struggle due to its unfavorable external position, low real rates, and the prospect of higher capital goods imports. The US dollar remained steady amid Middle East hostilities, which further lifted oil prices.
Remittance flows supporting the peso were diminishing as growth from major source markets like the United States and Middle Eastern countries showed signs of slowing or remained modest. Investor caution was evident in emerging market bond markets, with Indonesia's 10-year bond yields climbing 23.9 basis points to 7.229% and the Philippines' yields surging 23.6% year-to-date, as per LSEG-compiled data.
Indonesia's 10-year bond and Taiwan's dollar weakened 0.3% each, while Thailand's baht lost 0.1% after touching its weakest level since early August. The MSCI gauge of emerging market equities in Asia dropped 1.8% to an over one-week low, with top constituents South Korea's KOSPI and Taiwan's benchmark losing 3.1% and 1.3%, respectively.
Indonesian stocks eased 0.2%, rebounding slightly from their highest level since mid-May, while Thailand's shares slipped 0.4%. Shares in Singapore and Malaysia remained largely unchanged. Investors now await the US nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, for insights into potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the month.
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