OPEC+ Set to Hold Oil Output Steady as Iran War Disrupts Supply

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil output levels for October, according to reports from Reuters. The organization's seven core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are set to discuss this decision during an online meeting on Sunday at 1100 GMT. Throughout 2026, these nations have progressively increased their monthly production quotas, with a September increase marking the completion of the phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day of supply cuts, initially agreed upon in 2023.

However, much of this additional supply has not reached the market due to disruptions in Gulf exports caused by the Iran war and Russia's involvement in the conflict. OPEC's production increased by 1.17 million barrels per day in July, yet it remained significantly below the group's quotas. The ongoing Iran war has also diminished OPEC's influence on the market as the group's production decisions now have less impact on prices and market share compared to before the war, with Brent crude trading near $94 per barrel due to renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on tankers.

Despite OPEC still having production cuts in place for the remaining members of its 21-member group until the end of 2026, attention is now shifting towards production baselines for 2027, which will determine how individual countries' quotas are calculated.