Many space missions are searching for life beyond Earth, but are we prepared for the fallout if they succeed?

The search for extraterrestrial life, particularly microbial forms, is becoming more plausible as more space missions launch each year. The confirmation of such life would be a paradigm-shifting event, yet it raises concerns about the international response. Our team, comprised of experts in international affairs, space policy, and the social implications of frontier technologies, is interested in understanding the potential fallout from the discovery of extraterrestrial microbes.

They emphasize the need for nations and the international community to be prepared for such an event.

Multiple Mars landers and Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft have identified large amounts of frozen and liquid water, essential for life, on the red planet. Samples retrieved by Hayabusa2 revealed the presence of uracil, a building block of RNA, an important component of life. Upcoming space probes, including NASA's Europa Clipper and the European Space Agency's Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer, are set to conduct detailed reconnaissance of Jupiter's moons to investigate their potential habitability.

The James Webb Space Telescope and missions targeting Saturn's icy moon Enceladus will also contribute to this endeavor.

The discovery of microbial life would expose significant gaps in international governance related to space. While the Outer Space Treaty, established in 1967, provides some guidelines for space law, it is ill-equipped to address the complexities posed by extraterrestrial biology. For instance, it doesn't specify who can own extraterrestrial organisms or how to handle biosecurity risks associated with potential discoveries.

The treaty focuses on peaceful use of outer space and prevents any nation from claiming sovereignty over celestial bodies.

Despite the lack of international agreements specifically addressing extraterrestrial life, there are historical geopolitical events that can offer insights into potential future responses. The space race of the 1950s and 1960s, driven by the Cold War power struggle, led to nationalism and militarization rather than collaboration.

However, the threat of asteroid impacts has fostered cooperation among nations, as seen in the global network for monitoring and responding to such threats. The International Space Station is another example of cooperation among competing great powers, demonstrating how nations can work together on specific, short-term goals.

Based on these examples, our team identifies three possible outcomes to the discovery of microbial extraterrestrial life. The first is a cooperative outcome, similar to the asteroid threat network or the International Space Station, where nations collaborate to regulate research, share data, protect the planet, or advance shared interests.

This pathway could involve expanding the roles of international organizations or creating new legal instruments. The second outcome is a competitive one, characterized by strategic rivalry between countries, akin to the space race. Nations might fight to be technologically superior, monopolize access to extraterrestrial microbes, or leverage biological discoveries for economic or military advantage.

The discovery could lead to innovations in medicine, agriculture, and energy, but also pose elevated biosecurity risks if organisms are weaponized.

The third outcome involves the increasing role of private companies, such as SpaceX, which receive government contracts, blurring the lines between commercial, civilian, and strategic interests. The discovery of microbial life could create a new form of technological competition, merging space exploration with biological research and development.