Labor votes: Discontent will accompany blue‑collar voters to the polls in the midterms
In closely contested House and Senate races, even a small shift in union votes could influence the outcome.
Labor Day is approaching, and union workers across the nation may be reflecting on President Ronald Reagan's famous question: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" The current economic climate is challenging for America's unionized workforce. Inflation, higher prices for essential goods, and concerns about job security due to AI and robotics are weighing heavily on their minds. Additionally, federal job cuts during President Trump's second term have impacted many workers previously represented by unions.
As a labor studies scholar, it is my belief that weariness and wariness will accompany blue-collar voters to the polls in November. In this upcoming midterm election, candidates who offer practical solutions to improve the economy and demonstrate empathy for Americans struggling to make ends meet may garner the majority of the union vote.
Historically, union members have largely supported Democratic candidates, but their support has waned in recent decades. In the 2024 presidential campaign, while the majority of union members voted for Democratic candidates, the rate was significantly lower than in the 1960s. This matters because union voters play a crucial role in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, where a significant portion of voters belong to unions.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that unionized workers have been on a decline for decades. In 1983, 20.1% of U.S. workers were part of a union, but by 2025, this number had dropped to 10.0%, or 14.7 million people. Public sector workers have a much higher union representation rate (32.9%) compared to private sector workers (5.9%). In close elections, the shifting dynamics of these voting blocs can significantly affect the outcome.
President Trump's promises during the 2024 campaign, such as reducing consumer prices, bringing back manufacturing jobs, and respecting workers' rights, have not been fully realized. Recent polls suggest a decline in Trump's support among union households, adding to the uncertainty about which party will control the House and Senate in the midterms.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
