Interview: Bankier Franz von Metzler: „Die Chancen für Deutschland stehen gut“

Bankier Franz von Metzler believes that the chances for Germany are good, despite geopolitical crises. The stock market is constantly breaking new records, and while geopolitics plays a significant role in capital markets, fundamentals have been driving strong company earnings. Artificial intelligence excitement also contributes to the rally, but it has a fundamental basis.

Even if the Iran conflict escalates temporarily, markets expect actors to reach a consensus in the medium term. So, could the rally continue for longer? The company expects a positive second half. What is the biggest risk currently overlooked by the markets? The biggest risk would be a massive escalation of the geopolitical situation, such as between the US and Iran.

The capital market is differently positioned and does not see this risk. How is inflation developing? Oil prices are a short-term factor, but medium-term inflation in the Eurozone should move back towards the European Central Bank's target. What is your view on the growing sovereign debt worldwide? The immense sovereign debt in all industrial countries is known, but it depends on the structure.

What remains crucial is the proportion of external creditors. For the US, the unshakable status of the US dollar as the leading reserve currency remains unchanged and is not expected to change in the foreseeable future. Is there a KI bubble? I do not believe in a bubble that is about to burst. While investments are enormous, companies in the expanded AI universe also have extraordinary earnings power.

Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are just the tip of the iceberg, but everything around them benefits today and outperforms even exceptionally high revenue and margin targets. If an IPO like OpenAI fails, could it not trigger a massive market correction? First, the IPO must happen. Officially, nothing is known yet. However, I think that if companies like OpenAI or Anthropic come to the stock market and make pure AI companies invesitable for the first time, investor demand will be large.

US companies have been valued higher on the stock market than their European counterparts for years. Will it remain that way or will European stock exchanges catch up? The much-quoted US exceptionalism is based on very high revenue and earnings growth, especially in the field of artificial intelligence. At the moment, there is no indication that this trend is slowing down.

Nonetheless, some asset managers have expressed the desire to shift more international investments into European assets. Do you observe this as well? Indeed, the political situation in the US has led to a renewed focus on Europe by international investors. Especially the infrastructure and investment packages announced by the federal government have attracted attention.

However, increased interest does not automatically result in capital inflows. They are still mainly out there.