Monetary policy: Investors betting on several rate hikes - but they could be wrong
The markets still expect at least three interest rate hikes by the ECB by mid-2027. However, an analysis of central bankers' speeches and insider and expert assessments raises doubts.
Investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates to at least 3.0 percent by mid-2024, but a KI-supported analysis of ECB speeches and expert opinions suggests that this expectation may be overly optimistic. The analysis, conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), indicates that while a rate hike is likely next week, the ECB may not be as hawkish as markets assume.
The ZEW's "momentum score" suggests that the ECB is not as committed to rapid rate hikes as it was in mid-2022, and some experts believe that the bank will not risk a recession to combat inflation.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's report — not a translation of it. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
