Economists raise Singapore's 2026 growth forecast to 5%: MAS survey

The Monetary Authority of Singapore's latest quarterly survey of professional forecasters, released on September 2, shows a shift in expectations towards monetary policy tightening, despite most respondents still anticipating no immediate changes. The median growth forecast for 2026 has increased to 5 percent, up from 3.5 percent in June, aligning closely with the official forecast range of 4.5 to 5.5 percent.

For 2027, GDP growth is predicted to expand by 3.1 percent. The survey, sent to 25 professional economists on August 11 and received by 21 respondents, reflects their views rather than MAS's. Higher growth expectations across most sectors, such as manufacturing, finance and insurance, construction, and wholesale and retail trade, contributed to the growth upgrade.

However, the forecast for accommodation and food services decreased, with economists now expecting 1 percent growth, down from 1.8 percent in the previous survey. Overall GDP growth in Q2 was 5.9 percent, exceeding the median expectation of 4.3 percent. The survey also indicates a lower expected median for both headline and core inflation in the latest round.

Headline inflation is now projected at 2.1 percent, down from 2.3 percent, and core inflation at 1.9 percent, down from 2 percent. These figures fall within the authorities' forecast range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent for both headline and core inflation. The expected unemployment rate remains at 2.1 percent, and a majority of respondents still expect MAS to maintain monetary policy settings in October, with 45 percent anticipating a tightening move.