Dollar steadies near two-week high as Middle East hostilities lift oil

On September 2, the dollar steadied near a two-week high as tensions in the Middle East propelled oil prices upward, reigniting inflation worries and exerting upward pressure on bond yields. The dollar index climbed 0.11% to 99.79, its highest level since August 17, while the euro fell 0.14% to $1.1576. The appeal of the dollar as a safe-haven asset was bolstered by rising Treasury yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, despite recent economic data falling short of forecasts.

The U.S. initiated airstrikes against Iran on Tuesday, prompting Iranian counterattacks, marking the most significant escalation in weeks. Oil prices surged on Wednesday, with Brent futures increasing 0.75% to $95.36 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising 0.41% to $90.62. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note peaked at 4.812%, its highest since November 2023, before falling to 4.804%.

Higher yields attract investors to safe-haven currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, while diminishing the allure of riskier assets like equities. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar declined 1.01% to $0.5844 against the greenback, its lowest point since August 13, despite the country's central bank raising its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. Analysts noted that the decision fell short of market expectations.