Dax aktuell: Dax startet im Minus – Ölpreis nähert sich 100-Dollar-Marke

September continues its reputation for being a poor month for stock markets, as the Dax opens at 25,880 points in trade, hardly changing. Since the beginning of the week, the leading index has fallen more than 1% each day, the first time this has happened in over eight weeks, according to LSEG data. Trading volume on Tuesday was also low, with fewer than 50 million shares changing hands.

Overall, the index has lost more than 600 points since the previous Friday. The long-term trend remains intact as the index moves away from the 26,000-point mark. Analyst Thomas Altmann from QC Markets notes that it will be interesting to see how investors respond when the index drops below the psychologically important 2,000-point mark.

However, the index is still above the 200-day line, which shows the long-term trend by displaying the average closing price of the past 200 days. The line stands at 24,630 points. The current situation of the Dax can be described as descending downwards like a "rollstaircase," according to Martin Utschneider from Robomarkets. Caution is advised at this stage.

Meanwhile, tensions between the USA and Iran over control of the Hormuz Strait have resurfaced, causing oil prices to rise sharply. Brent crude oil has increased by about 7% since the week began, reaching up to 97 dollars per barrel for November delivery and 90 dollars per barrel for October delivery. This is the highest level in nearly six weeks.

Rising energy prices and growing inflation concerns are causing stock and pension fund prices to drop, according to Altmann. Brent prices reached a peak of 126 dollars per barrel in mid-April, when the Hormuz Strait was the main route for transporting around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas. Fear of supply disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East is also driving up gas prices in Europe to their highest level in over three years, with the European gas future up more than 20% since early August.

Rising energy prices increase production and transportation costs, fueling inflation. As central banks typically respond to higher inflation with later or absent interest rate cuts, investors demand higher returns on government bonds to offset the increased risk, causing bond prices to fall. With inflation and interest rate concerns, yields on ten-year government bonds have reached a 15-year high of 3.36%.

The combination of rising oil prices, inflation fears, and expectations of higher interest rates from central banks is directly and indirectly impacting stock prices. In the coming week, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rate hikes. Market participants expect a rate increase in September.

The upcoming release of US employment data at 14:15 UTC today will serve as a good indicator for the upcoming government data published on Friday. The labor market is a crucial factor influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Investors will closely monitor the release.