Crossing Hormuz in the dark: The secret oil operation testing Trump’s claims

The ongoing feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran has not yet concluded. Following Iran's retaliation to the latest U.S. attack, which was triggered by an earlier Iranian strike, the stage is once again set for another round of conflict. President Trump has hinted at escalating the situation further, but for now, he appears inclined to bring the hostilities to an end.

Instead of launching another American strike, Trump turned his attention to taunting Iran on social media, joking about renaming the Strait of Hormuz after his name. The dispute at the heart of this escalation is control of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil artery of the global economy. Iran has refused to relinquish this strategic asset, which it increasingly regards as a vital component of its national security, much like its nuclear program.

Iran has targeted tankers that, with U.S. support, infringe upon the restrictions Tehran has imposed on passage through the strait, often crossing covertly and predominantly during the night. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has insisted that the strait is open and under effective American control, while simultaneously implementing measures to economically isolate Iran, such as a blockade of Iranian ports and threats to sanction countries trading with it.

This strategy aims to weaken Iran's economy, which would ideally lead to a devaluation of its oil production and potentially curb prices. However, concerns have been raised about the accuracy of these claims. Iranian attacks on oil tankers have continued despite the U.S. efforts, prompting the latest strike. Trump claims the strait remains open and points to around 30 ships passing through each night under U.S. escort, a figure U.S. officials have disputed.

The discrepancy in reported figures has sparked debate among maritime experts. Even if Trump's claim is correct, the number remains significantly lower than the prewar levels, which averaged over 130 ships daily.