British Pound: Break below 1.35 shifts focus lower against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret have indicated that the British Pound has broken below 1.35, shifting the focus lower against the US Dollar. The Pound is described as soft but mid-pack within the G10, with domestic data and Bank of England events limited prior to Governor Bailey's upcoming speech. Political sentiment under Prime Minister Burnham was previously a key driver of Pound strength, but is now being challenged by rising oil prices.

Technically, the break of 1.35 refocuses attention on support levels in the mid-1.34s and 1.33. The Pound's decline of 0.3% versus the USD still places it as a mid-performer among the G10 amid broader USD strength. While domestic releases have been limited and the BoE calendar is empty ahead of Bailey's speech, political developments have been minimal, offering little to market participants seeking domestic drivers.

The shift in sentiment, driven by PM Burnham's arrival in late June, initially boosted the Pound's strength, as evidenced by fading protection premiums in the options market. However, recent surges in oil prices appear to be eroding this support, rekindling the market's appetite for downside protection. The RSI has plunged into bearish territory, yet the momentum indicator remains in the mid-40s, suggesting limited near-term stabilization.