Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Wednesday, September 2, 2026

On Wednesday, September 2, 2026, Brazil's financial markets opened with the Selic rate fixed at 14.00%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter-point cut since August. The focus of the morning's trading was on how the upcoming data releases would impact the Selic rate decision at the Copom meeting scheduled for September 15-16.

The market's pre-market activity was influenced by the latest polls, betting odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, and the expectations for the Selic rate's trajectory. The Selic rate, currently at 14.00%, had been priced at roughly a 75% probability for a 0.25-point cut by the September meeting according to B3 Copom options.

Key domestic data releases expected to influence the market were the IPC-Fipe inflation print at 08:00 BRT and the Industrial Production figures at noon. These releases were seen as potential indicators of whether the disinflation trend would continue or if the economy was cooling enough to warrant another rate cut at the upcoming Copom meeting.

Notable market participants included B3, which had recently won a Carf tax victory worth R$2.2 billion, and consumer-sensitive stocks tied to the Cury polling story. The Ibovespa entered the session with a strong performance, but its immediate direction would be determined by the data and traders' interpretation of the September Copom path.

The domestic data releases were expected to set the tone for B3 and recalibrate the Selic wager before the US session took over. Analysts expected the Selic rate to remain at 14.00% until early 2027, with a small possibility of another cut in September. The specific data points to watch were the IPC-Fipe inflation reading at 08:00 BRT and the Industrial Production figures at 12:00 BRT.