Black gold pays premium as US-Iran play with fire

Crude oil prices surged more than 2% on Wednesday, mirroring the strong gains from the prior trading day, as concerns about potential supply interruptions rose following the US and Iran exchanging retaliatory strikes. This development has dampened expectations of a swift de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

The United States launched a series of airstrikes against targets in Iran overnight, a move Iran retaliated to, marking one of the most serious escalations in the ongoing conflict between the two nations in recent weeks. According to US Central Command, these strikes were in response to recent attempted attacks by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and on American personnel stationed in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway responsible for transporting approximately one-fifth of the world's oil consumption, has been threatened by the IRGC, which claims it has targeted a US military base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, alleging the loss of numerous US forces. Iranian state media also reported a large-scale drone attack on a US base in Bahrain, in retaliation for the American strikes.

This latest round of hostilities follows a weekend surge of violence, the most intense since July, and the culmination of attacks on two tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. These attacks intensified supply disruptions and prompted traders to seek alternative crude shipments.

The duration of the disruption will be crucial for crude markets. JPMorgan estimates that each additional month of delays could increase Brent prices by around $7 to $8 per barrel. If the disruption persists for three months, the bank forecasts average monthly Brent prices to reach about $114 per barrel. Goldman Sachs also warns that Brent could climb to $120 per barrel if shipping interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most vital oil transit route, continue.

However, its base case assumes that tensions in the Middle East will eventually subside, with Brent expected to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 per barrel next year. Risks, however, remain on the upside if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue longer than anticipated.