Why Pune’s 31% monsoon surplus could vanish amid grim September forecast

In August, Pune district experienced a 28% rainfall deficit, yet it entered September with a 31% surplus in cumulative monsoon rain from June to September, thanks to excessive July rainfall. However, forecasts suggest below-normal September showers, which could quickly erase that surplus. K S Hosalikar, a former head of Climate Research and Services at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Pune, warned that reservoir levels could drop rapidly within the next 15 days, reducing the surplus rain reading to normal.

He cautioned that the upcoming above-normal temperatures could lead to high evaporation, depleting water resources in dams, reservoirs, and lakes. As people in Pune continue using water as usual, this situation could pose a significant challenge. July brought historically heavy rain to Pune, but August saw only 84.5 mm of rain—the third-lowest in a decade.

The total seasonal rainfall, however, ensured a 200 mm surplus rain as September began. Nationwide, India ended August with a 14% rainfall deficit, and Maharashtra, 12%. Hosalikar noted that the challenging August rainfall has been tough for the state, as most of the time, skies were clear, leading to water scarcity in agriculture, especially in regions without good irrigation methods.

Many crops suffered due to the lack of rain and the extreme heat. Despite the current surplus, Hosalikar pointed out that the country is likely to see below-normal rain in September as well, less than 91% of the Long Period Average. El Niño, currently maturing, could peak at the end of October or the beginning of November, potentially raising temperatures and further impacting water resources.