Why did Modi urge Putin to end Ukraine war - and will he listen?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the ongoing war in Ukraine, emphasizing that every day of conflict pushes humanity backward, while every step towards peace fills humanity with renewed hope and enthusiasm. Modi, whose country's economy heavily relies on discounted oil from Moscow, has made several similar pleas to Putin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The Prime Minister's comments are not surprising and do not indicate any change in India's foreign policy, as he had previously stated that "now is not the time for war." However, it would be incorrect to view Modi's statements as rebuffs to Putin or Russia's strategy. Western countries have pressured Modi to take a clear stance on the war, but Delhi has largely maintained a neutral position, advocating for dialogue to end the conflict.

Modi's current statement is consistent with India's policy of strategic autonomy. The answer to why Modi made this public statement lies in the long-standing Russia-India ties, as both countries have generally found ways to work together despite their differing geopolitical views. Despite the challenges of maintaining their relationship, including Delhi's growing ties with Europe and the US, as well as its membership in the Quad group, Moscow and Delhi tend to navigate through these differences.

Russia still supplies around 40% of India's defense imports and energy needs, which is unlikely to cause any rift in Moscow-Delhi relations. President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also suggested to Putin to freeze the conflict and return to the negotiating table just five weeks ago, but there is no sign that these public calls for peace will change Putin's calculations.

Modi's call for an end to hostilities in Ukraine has not surprised the Kremlin leader, who responded by stating that they are moving forward along this path. However, it remains unclear whether this path will be short or long for Russia.