When the heat is on, distrust gold

This year, our team has remained steadfast in adhering to the forecasts published in December of the previous year, and for a valid reason. In our weekly "Commodity Comment," we have consistently emphasized that although the fundamental drivers for gold have been temporarily dormant, they have persisted. Despite experiencing more than a quarter's loss in Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) holdings, we anticipated that the resurgence of uncertainty, the shift towards de-dollarization, and the growing concerns over debasement-driven allocations would reemerge, ultimately pushing gold prices upward—an outlook corroborated by gold's early August recovery, current pricing, and the prevailing trend of inflows.

We continue to maintain the belief that gold is likely to remain within the $4500-$5000 per ounce range for the remainder of this year (a perspective that remains unaltered and backed by high conviction), and we now explicitly emphasize our middle-to-high scenario range for the third and fourth quarters, as well as the annual forecast.

By the end of the year, our projection leans towards the high scenario for 2026, priced at $4929 per ounce, and for 2027, we favor a high of $5296 per ounce. However, our middle-to-high scenario range remains the most probable price band across our forecast horizon (refer to the accompanying table for further details). The driving force behind this outlook is grounded in the fundamental thesis; nonetheless, we diverge on the timing.