Unpredictable El Niño season leaves NW farmlands at severe fire risk

The North West province could lose over 1.6 million hectares of land, including farmland and veld, as what promises to be the region's worst fire season unfolds. This warning comes from the North West Umbrella Fire Protection Association, which anticipates a surge in wildfires due to the strengthening El Niño conditions. Eric Stoch, the association's chairperson, laments that the province's worst year on record, 2023, saw the loss of 1.4 million hectares, and they did not secure the necessary state of disaster declaration from the national government for financial aid.

In contrast, the Western Cape province seems to enjoy more financial support when facing similar situations. The association is now collaborating with provincial and national disaster management bodies to take proactive measures in preventing the impending disaster. With the arrival of a potentially devastating Super El Niño, the association projects that up to 1.6 million hectares might be lost this year.

Atmospheric scientist Professor Roelof Burger from North West University cautions that, although there is no direct link between El Niño and heightened fire seasons, the biomass from prior rains might exacerbate the risk of wildfires. The outlook for the season is dire, with extreme high temperatures expected throughout spring and summer, accompanied by below-normal rainfall.

This combination of factors could potentially lead to very active fires. While municipal support services and infrastructure in the Northwest Province may not be as robust as desired, Stoch believes that the community is stepping up to the challenge.