Shein perde janela e tem estreia modesta em Hong Kong

Shein, the Chinese fast fashion giant, experienced a disappointing debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company's shares dropped 10% at the opening of trading but ultimately closed stable, with stabilization measures put in place by underwriters to prevent significant drops on the first day, according to Reuters. The highly anticipated IPO, which had been awaited for years, took place at a time when Europe and the US are imposing barriers against Chinese imports of low value, the main business of Shein.

The stock ended the first day trading at HK$48.50, slightly below the IPO price of HK$48.56. At the day's low, it traded at HK$43.80. The market cap stood at US$26.3 billion, almost a quarter of the company's previous valuation estimates. In 2022, Shein was valued at US$98.2 billion in a Series D round - at the time, more than Zara and H&M combined.

A subsequent round saw the valuation drop to US$66 billion. Shein's valuation is now similar to that of Swedish H&M. Spanish Inditex, the owner of Zara, is worth much more: US$210 billion. In the US, the company has become a target in the geopolitical war alongside other Chinese companies like TikTok and Huawei, the Wall Street Journal reported.

"I don't see a solid narrative about how they intend to grow," said an analyst from Momentum Works, a Singapore-based consultancy. "They talk about what they have done, but regarding the future, I see nothing concrete." In 2025, the company's net revenue is expected to fall by 39%, reflecting the end of the de minimis low-value purchases exemption in the US, the second-largest market for Shein after Europe.

Based in Singapore, Shein aimed to list its shares on either New York or London, but faced political and regulatory obstacles, according to the Financial Times. The IPO did not generate significant demand. The retail investor tranche attracted 4.6 times the offering, while the international tranche only 1.6 times. The company raised US$1.7 billion.

The company was valued at 15 times projected earnings, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, twice the multiple of PDD Holdings - the parent company of Temu. The Hang Seng index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has a multiple of 10.7x. "Investors are now favoring bets on AI. The appeal of Shein is limited as it is a traditional e-commerce company that heavily depends on price competition," said a director from the investment bank Chanson & Co. The executive believes the company faces higher costs associated with trade tensions with the US and a less attractive growth perspective compared to Alibaba or PDD.

In Brazil, however, Shein is expected to win a victory soon with a pending project in Congress to permanently eliminate the "blouse tax." Shein was founded in Nanjing, China, in 2008 by Sky Xu, a son of laborers. According to Bloomberg, the entrepreneur's personal fortune is now estimated at around US$8 billion.