SA faces hotter, drier summer as ‘very strong’ El Niño threatens to intensify
South Africa is heading into a potentially hotter and drier summer, with SAWS warning that an exceptionally strong El Niño could trigger severe heatwaves, below-normal rainfall and mounting water shortages.
South Africa anticipates a hotter and drier summer as the South African Weather Service (SAWS) warns of a powerful El Niño event that may become the strongest on record. This 2026/27 El Niño has already surpassed levels indicative of a very strong event and is expected to intensify further in spring. SAWS reports ocean temperatures in the eastern-central tropical Pacific are already exceeding the threshold for a very strong El Niño, with anomalies reaching 2°C above normal.
The service forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across South Africa from October to December 2026, with these conditions likely persisting into January 2027. While El Niño events typically bring drought and severe heatwaves to southern Africa, they do not always result in drought. The 1997/98 El Niño, for example, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over some parts of South Africa's summer rainfall region.
However, SAWS stresses that the current El Niño's impact could be exacerbated by global warming, potentially making 2027 the warmest year on record. The combination of below-normal rainfall and extreme heat could place significant strain on water resources and weather-sensitive sectors, including agriculture. SAWS has cautioned that while the strength and regional impact of the El Niño remain uncertain, it will continue monitoring the situation and issuing updates to disaster management agencies, weather-sensitive industries, the media, and the public.
Written by urgent.news from IOL's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
