Russia’s SCO Show Masks Shrinking Power, US Analyst Goble Says

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping used the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan to highlight their deepening ties and a vision for a multipolar world. However, veteran Russia analyst Paul Goble argues that the gathering is unlikely to hide the fact that Moscow is losing allies, influence, and much of the soft power it once possessed.

The SCO summit brought together Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, among others.

Xi Jinping reportedly told Putin that he was "happy" to see him, stating that Russian-Chinese ties had become "more solid." Putin also claimed that cooperation was "successfully developing on all fronts." However, Goble told Kyiv Post that this diplomatic spectacle should not be mistaken for a geopolitical turning point, stating that talk shops like this one usually don't produce significant developments.

Goble pointed out that Russia's economy has become increasingly dependent on China since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, Goble emphasized that the diplomatic spectacle in Bishkek should not be interpreted as a geopolitical turning point. He argued that the Soviet Union, which played a crucial role in defeating Nazi Germany, is an enemy for Russia today, as it is for most countries in the world.

Goble stressed that Russia is now grouped with internationally isolated and hostile states and that such countries rarely attract allies due to the high cost of allying with them.

He also argued that Russia's soft power has been significantly diminished due to Putin's actions. Goble highlighted that Russia currently uses brute force when it can get away with it, which isn't attractive to people. He also noted that countries like Iran and North Korea, which maintain close ties with Russia, are isolated and cooperate with each other not because they are allies but because they cannot find allies.

Goble argued that Russia's inability to defeat Ukraine has begun changing calculations in Washington. He said that President Donald Trump, who "likes a winner," now recognizes that Ukraine's continued battlefield resilience means Russia is not going to achieve the sweeping victory Putin initially sought. The Ukrainian army's survival, Goble stated, is likely to win the war, forcing Russia to compromise.

The cost of the war, including Ukraine's long-range strikes, is increasingly affecting Russian influence and power in the Caucasus and Central Asia, as Ukrainian drones create gas crises in Russia and beyond. Goble also noted that Russia's continued attacks on Ukrainian civilians are shaping American perceptions of the conflict, strengthening the view that Russia is the guilty party.

Finally, Goble emphasized that domestic politics, particularly ahead of congressional elections, matter for Trump, as Americans remain broadly sympathetic toward Ukraine.