Russia's Race to Replace Starlink Is Failing

Russia's efforts to construct a satellite network akin to Starlink, named Rassvet, have encountered substantial challenges, failing to achieve the necessary altitude for effective operation, according to recent reports. The Kremlin is in a rush to launch satellites termed Rassvet to substitute Starlink connectivity over Ukraine following Russia's loss of access to the SpaceX-owned communications network.

The decision by Musk to deny Russian forces access to his service had immediate battlefield implications, leading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to bestow upon SpaceX CEO Elon Musk his nation's Order of Liberty on August 26. Despite these developments, Moscow's satellite initiative has been plagued with mishaps. Not a single satellite from the second batch launched on July 19 managed to achieve the designated 540-mile operational orbit as of August 31, with many hovering around 180 miles above ground level.

Some are even succumbing to orbital decay, while at least two are slated for reentry into Earth's atmosphere, as per the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a U.S. think tank, commented on the higher-than-expected failure rate of the Rassvet satellites.

The Russian Defense Ministry has yet to comment on the matter. The Rassvet project, backed by substantial private and government investments, aims to provide connectivity to Russian forces in Ukraine. Launched since 2023, the aerospace company Bureau 1440 has initiated Rassvet-3 launches in anticipation of a commercial service in 2027.

However, the failure of the entire batch of 16 Rassvet satellites to reach operational altitudes implies that Moscow might have been unprepared for the accelerated deployment of the constellation, potentially facing further delays.