Mary Peltola's Chances in Alaska As Dem Drops Out, Race Moves to 'Tilt D'
Peltola holds a narrow edge, but ranked-choice voting and conflicting forecasts keep Alaska’s Senate race highly competitive.
Mary Peltola has a clearer path to victory in Alaska's Senate election following fellow Democrat David Leslie's withdrawal, leaving her as the sole Democrat against three Republicans. The race has shifted from "Toss Up" to "Tilt Democrat" after Peltola secured nearly a majority in the August 18 primary. Peltola garnered 82,244 votes, leading Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan by 8.14 percentage points.
The ranked-choice voting system in Alaska means the final outcome depends on how voters rank the candidates, making the composition of the four finalists crucial. Three Republican candidates now include Gerald Heikes, who entered the race after Leslie's withdrawal. Peltola's polling and fundraising advantages, combined with Leslie's departure, have moved the race in her direction.
However, other analysts remain less optimistic. Polling results have been mixed, with some showing Peltola leading and others showing Sullivan ahead. Prediction markets also indicate a tilt towards Peltola, with a probability of 66 percent compared to 35 percent for the incumbent. Despite the narrowing field, Peltola acknowledges the contest is far from over and emphasizes the need for voter support.
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