Libya: Can the African Union Remain Relevant in Libya?

The African Union (AU) faces an uncertain future in Libya, as the country remains a fragmented and unstable political landscape. Fifteen years after the uprising that ousted Muammar Gaddafi, Libya continues to grapple with competing power centers in the east and west, which hinder national reconciliation and democratic transition.

The region's instability has given rise to arms trafficking, organized crime, irregular migration, terrorism, and the movement of foreign fighters across the Sahel and beyond. With Africa's largest oil reserves and approximately 150 armed groups, competition for resources further exacerbates the crisis.

The AU has long been a key player in Libya's peace and security efforts. The Peace and Security Council (PSC) has convened at least 20 meetings on the matter since February 2011, and the AU High-Level Committee on Libya serves as the organization's primary platform for an African-led settlement. The AU's role in reconciliation stands out among the crowded mediation landscape, but its ability to coordinate existing initiatives and ensure their implementation is questionable.

Recent developments, such as the signing of the Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation in January, the approval of a unified budget in April, a joint military exercise in March, and a roadmap to national elections in August, suggest cautious but significant diplomatic progress. However, these advances have been overshadowed by the persistent failure to implement existing agreements.