Landtagswahl: Machtübernahme der AfD? Was in Sachsen-Anhalt wirtschaftlich auf dem Spiel steht

On September 6th, the state of Sachsen-Anhalt will hold a Landtag election with nationwide significance. According to recent polls, the AfD is leading with over 40% of the vote and could potentially secure an absolute majority of mandates. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has warned of a potential government led by the AfD, which he believes could weaken the state and deter international investors.

Merz did not specify how a government without the AfD could be formed. Merz emphasized during a joint appearance with CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze in Quedlinburg that Sachsen-Anhalt should not become an "experimentation ground for angry citizens." AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund aims for the position of Minister-President and has contradicted Chancellor Merz's warnings.

"We will experience a period of economic prosperity here in Sachsen-Anhalt under an AfD-led government," Siegmund claimed in an interview with "Welt TV." The state federation is classified as securely far-right by the Verfassungsschutz. What consequences would an AfD takeover have? Ten graphics illustrate the strengths, weaknesses, and risks of the location.

Economically, Sachsen-Anhalt is a small country, even among the eastern German federal states. The state has had the least economic growth of all federal states over the past six years. Joachim Ragnitz, an Ifo economist, told "Zeit" that Sachsen-Anhalt has long been in poor condition. The economy is barely getting by. In the next state government, a significant economic problem will be inherited.

With a significant economic weakness, the AfD-led government could exacerbate the situation if its policies deter investors and skilled workers. The German economy consists of more than just industry; chemistry and machinery are among the most well-known sectors of the economy in Sachsen-Anhalt. However, solutions are vague, especially in energy policy.

A reliable, affordable, and safe energy supply is the "Achilles' heel of our industry." A few sectors dominate the economy: chemistry, food, metal, and machinery. Issues in these industries quickly affect other businesses. Economic development in Sachsen-Anhalt is uneven across regions. Some regions are growing, while others are declining.

An AfD government could exacerbate the situation if investors avoid the location. Large industrial companies are particularly important for many regions, providing high-paying jobs and high value creation. Some industrial locations achieve a level of economic performance per employee comparable to western German industrial regions.

The Saalekreis, for example, is practically at the level of Hesse and above the federal average. Sachsen-Anhalt lacks workers, with the IHK Halle-Dessau warning of an intensifying skills shortage. The AfD's election program explicitly states that they prefer not to have foreign workers. This could make it even more difficult for companies to find personnel.

The Ifo economist Joachim Ragnitz also points out in the AfD election program that they would like to have "relatively clearly that they would like to have no foreign workers at all." "Then the social system collapses because it depends on it." The population decline burdens the economy. Sachsen-Anhalt has been losing residents for decades, meaning fewer employees and fewer apprentices.

Frederic Speidel of IG Metall explained that the 150-page AfD government program has little to do with the interests of dependent employees. He pointed out that industries such as the automotive industry face major changes and that one cannot adopt an attitude of 'everything was better in the past.' With more work, it is not enough.

People in Sachsen-Anhalt do not work significantly less, but the economy is still lagging behind many other federal states. Industrial jobs are hard to replace. The loss of industrial jobs is particularly painful, as they are often well-paid. Additionally, large plants employ not only those directly employed but also subcontractors, craftsmen, and service providers.

If positions are cut at these plants, the entire region suffers. According to calculations by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), average incomes in Sachsen-Anhalt could fall by about 6.2% or 1,600 euros per capita and year if an AfD-led government took office. Especially hard-hit would be AfD strongholds like the Mansfeld-Südharz, Burgenlandkreis, and Salzlandkreis.

The DIW estimate considers central demands of the AfD, including limiting immigration, reducing government spending and investments, and leaving the European Union. The DIW president, Marcel Fratzscher, explained that the expected damages are due to the labor shortage and Germany's high export dependence. Particularly vulnerable are structurally weak and aging regions, which are particularly dependent on immigration. An exit from the EU would be particularly detrimental.