La inflación se acelera más de lo esperado en la zona euro y abona la nueva subida de tipos

Inflation in the eurozone has accelerated more than anticipated, reaching 3.3% year-over-year in August, according to data released by Eurostat. This figure exceeds market consensus predictions of around 3% and marks the highest rate since September 2023. The eurozone's inflation rate has only briefly touched or surpassed the 3% mark a few times since then, most recently in April, May, and again in August 2025.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have been contributing to the surge in energy prices, which are then passed on to consumers, dampening household purchasing power, hindering economic activity, and pressuring the European Central Bank (BCE) to tighten its monetary policy and curb the inflationary rebound.

On August 15, the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, predicted that inflation would remain above 3% for the rest of the year, although he warned that the situation could worsen if the conflict in the Middle East continues indefinitely, as suggested by recent developments in the region.

With inflation above the 3% target, it appears increasingly likely that the ECB will act at its meeting on September 10, with most analysts expecting another 0.25 percentage point increase in the key interest rate from the current 2.25% to 2.50%. However, there is speculation that the central bank may ease up on future rate hikes to avoid overly tightening financing conditions, which could adversely impact the still fragile growth of the eurozone.

While the August price index did not bring good news, the silver lining is that underlying inflation, excluding fresh and energy prices, has moderated to 2.1%, a tenth lower than in July. This indicates that the surge in prices is still largely driven by volatile elements, especially energy, without significantly impacting the structural components of the consumer basket.