Kenya milk shortage: Why supply is falling and prices could rise

Kenya is experiencing a milk shortage primarily due to dry and cold weather conditions that have reduced pasture and fodder availability in key dairy-producing regions, leading to a drop in milk deliveries. The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) reported a 3.7% decrease in formal milk deliveries from 84.4 million liters in June to 81.3 million liters in July, with further declines expected in August.

Despite the supply constraints, milk is still available in markets nationwide, but low stocks, reduced availability of certain brands and pack sizes, and delayed replenishment at some retail outlets have been identified. Pasteurized milk is more affected by the disruption compared to long-life products like extended shelf-life (ESL) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk.

The decline in milk supply is largely attributed to the dry and cold conditions in key milk-producing areas, which put pressure on milk production, especially for farms with limited feed storage capacity. While the supply squeeze has not significantly impacted national prices, retail milk prices have remained stable, with some areas experiencing price increases due to supply constraints.

The October-November-December 2026 rainfall season is expected to provide relief by improving pasture and fodder availability, which could boost milk production and supply. To address the longer-term challenge of seasonal production swings, the government is implementing measures to increase milk production and strengthen the dairy value chain, such as procuring and distributing milk coolers to improve milk aggregation and preservation, and supporting dairy herd improvement through subsidised sexed semen.

These initiatives are expected to contribute to higher production and more stable milk supplies, reassuring consumers that the current situation is temporary.