Is Marnus Labuschagne finally out of luck?

For 23 Tests, Marnus Labuschagne stood out as the most fortunate batsman in Test cricket. He received more genuine chances dropped or missed than any other batsman since his debut until the conclusion of the 2021/22 Ashes series. Typically, he transformed these reprieves into significant scores. However, recently, Labuschagne has encountered limited success.

In fact, it has been 23 Tests since he last scored a century, which occurred back in the fourth Ashes Test at Old Trafford in 2023. He has been left out of the ODI squad destined to play against Zimbabwe and South Africa later this month. Only five times has he missed matches out of Australia's last 56 ODIs, sparking concerns about his future in the Test team.

George Bailey, the chair of selectors, acknowledged the ongoing deliberations about the Test squad structure during the presentation of the ODI squad. He noted that they are separating the formats, stating that Labuschagne, at his best, demonstrated a clear way of playing. The comparison between Labuschagne's career segments before and after his last Test ton reveals a trend of dwindling luck.

Over 75 innings from his Test debut in 2018 to his most recent hundred in 2023, he was given a reprieve 25 times, averaging one chance every three innings. From his first 20 Tests, he scored six centuries and 12 fifties, resulting in a batting average of 62.15. If he had been selected first opportunity, his average would have dropped to 46.50.

During the 2019-2021 World Test Championship cycle, Labuschagne played 13 Tests, scoring the most runs among all batters globally. He amassed 1,675 runs at an average of 72.82 from 23 innings. He was afforded 12 chances, or one every 1.92 innings, compared to Steve Smith's four reprieves, one every 5.5 innings, yet Smith scored 1,341 runs during that period.

Throughout his entire Test career, Labuschagne's ability to capitalize on his opportunities has been a defining characteristic. Labuschagne's maiden Test century was scored against Pakistan at the Gabba in 2019, where he registered an impressive 185 off 279 balls. His ability to turn missed opportunities into scores of 50 or more on nine occasions, including five centuries, was remarkable.

Since his last century, he has been provided with only four chances, adding only 18 runs to his total. In addition to facing limited luck, Labuschagne's ability to capitalize on his opportunities has also diminished. His exclusion from the ODI squad adds to the uncertainty surrounding his Test career.