El Niño: Sri Lanka must prepare before next climate crisis arrives

Sri Lanka may be facing a significant natural challenge in the form of another El Niño event, according to recent discussions with experienced meteorologists. While the exact nature of this potential occurrence remains uncertain, there are indications that above-normal rainfall could follow, leading to potentially severe drought conditions in early 2027.

This scenario highlights the urgent need for Sri Lanka to prepare for the consequences of El Niño, which could include water shortages, crop failures, extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, and food insecurity. Unlike a sudden catastrophe like the 2004 tsunami, El Niño's impacts can develop over months, providing an opportunity for proactive preparation.

The government and relevant institutions must focus on strengthening climate monitoring, improving weather forecasting, developing comprehensive preparedness plans, enhancing water-resource management, and ensuring clear coordination among agencies. This proactive approach not only addresses potential humanitarian needs but also represents a sound economic strategy given Sri Lanka's current fiscal constraints.

Recognising the inherent uncertainties in long-range forecasting, the response should be one of informed preparation and not dismissal. Water security should be a national priority, particularly if prolonged dry conditions arise. Strengthening groundwater protection, maintaining drainage infrastructure, and implementing long-term water-security strategies are crucial steps.

By taking these measures now, Sri Lanka can mitigate the potentially devastating consequences of El Niño and safeguard its communities, economy, and environment.