Copper price stalls short of record as Chile’s storm-hit output slumps to 2011 low
Comex stockpiles have swollen to almost three times the copper left in LME warehouses as traders keep pushing metal into the US ahead of January's duty.
Copper prices in New York dipped on Tuesday, reverting from gains seen in London, as the metal approached potential record highs. The Comex copper for December delivery saw a 1.3% decline to $6.6020 a pound, after peaking at $6.7420 earlier in the day. The September contract even hit an all-time high of $6.7775 last Wednesday. In London, three-month copper came within $2.50 of its own record, reaching $14,525 a tonne, just shy of the January 29 intraday peak of $14,527.50. LME inventories have dropped for four consecutive sessions, now at 234,275 tonnes.
Traders have been shipping copper into the United States in anticipation of a 15% duty on refined imports, set to rise to 30% in 2028. Comex stockpiles reached around 688,000 tonnes on August 31, almost triple the LME total, according to Bloomberg. Analyst Robert Edwards of CRU projected a global surplus of 639,000 tonnes for 2026, but now views the market as at best balanced. "If imports keep coming in as they have been, then it’s going to look like a deficit market in reality," he stated.
Chile's production of copper in July fell by 9.4% from the previous year and 9.8% compared to June, marking the lowest July output since 2011. The national statistics agency attributed the decline to adverse weather in the north of the country and maintenance at major sites. The impact of the weakened mining sector was evident in Chile's Imacec activity index, which fell 1.5% in July from a year earlier, with mining down 9.3%. This represents the steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Storms brought on by intensifying El Niño disrupted the normal production at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres and Lundin Mining's Caserones mines. Antofagasta reduced its 2026 guidance to between 625,000 and 655,000 tonnes from 650,000 to 700,000, following first-half results on August 13. Lundin Mining similarly trimmed Caserones output to 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes from 130,000 to 140,000, after a second storm knocked down a transmission tower.
Copper producers followed suit with their stocks falling alongside the metal on Tuesday. However, the year had looked different up until now. Freeport-McMoRan gained 17.8% over the past month, leading the major miners, followed by First Quantum's 15.6% and Ivanhoe Mines' 15.3%. Southern Copper, Teck Resources, Glencore, and BHP also experienced gains over the month, with the latter four seeing 13.3%, 11.4%, 10.7%, and 10.5% increases, respectively.
The two companies that adjusted their Chilean guidance were the underperformers, with Antofagasta falling 5.1% and Lundin Mining dropping 3.8% in Toronto.
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