The government's budget for 2030 is expected to exceed 1,000 trillion won, but the government still insists that the national debt ratio will be within 50%.

The government anticipates crossing the 1,000 trillion won budget mark even after achieving a significant improvement in key fiscal health indicators and the country's long-term recovery outlook. However, this outlook heavily depends on the duration of the semiconductor supercycle, which is considered a single variable, making the forecast quite uncertain.

According to the Planning Budget Office's 1-day released 2026~2030 National Fiscal Management Plan, the national debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 50.6% (including supplementary budget) this year to 48.3% next year, staying at a 48~49% range and ending at 49.0% in 2030. In contrast, last year, the same indicator was expected to rise steeply to 58.0% by 2029, but the drop in GDP size this year, up 12.3% from last year, has led to a significant improvement in fiscal indicators despite increased spending.

The government has declared its commitment to managing the national debt-to-GDP ratio below 50% by 2030. The management deficit ratio, a measure of the government's actual fiscal status, is also expected to stay within -3% by 2030. The improvement in the country's fiscal situation is largely attributed to a substantial increase in tax revenues, driven by the semiconductor supercycle.

Next year's tax revenue forecast is expected to surge by 40.7% from this year's 415 trillion won to 584 trillion won due to the semiconductor supercycle. The government estimates that tax revenue will rise by 13.4% annually in the 2026~2030 period, nearly double the previous forecast's annual growth rate of 4.6%. The corporate tax is expected to increase by 114% to 217 trillion won, income tax by 32% to 180 trillion won, and other revenues by 180 trillion won, bringing the total revenue to 880 trillion won, a sharp increase from this year's benchmark.

The government plans to estimate tax collections based on projected taxable items for 2028 and assume a 4% growth rate in tax collections for 2029~2030, based on a 3% increase. The higher budget increase in the subsequent years is due to the government's efforts to maintain the improvement in fiscal indicators. If the plans are met, the total government spending will surpass 1 trillion won in 2030.

However, this forecast is contingent on the duration of the semiconductor supercycle. Should the cycle end earlier than expected or face external variables like US tariffs and international oil prices, the current high national debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal outlook could revert.