Will a hurricane hit California? Here's what forecasters say about potential storm and timing

Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Baja California. Forecasts suggest it could evolve into a tropical depression within 48 hours and potentially a hurricane over the eastern Pacific. However, predicting its exact strength and path as it nears land remains uncertain.

According to the National Hurricane Center, there is an 80% chance of the system developing into a tropical depression within the next two days and a 90% chance within a week. KTLA meteorologist Kaj Goldberg indicated that the system could consolidate off Baja California by Thursday and move northward toward Southern California over the next week.

The storm could gain hurricane status by Friday or Saturday while still over warm Pacific waters. However, it is anticipated to weaken before reaching California due to cooler waters and land interaction typically reducing tropical cyclone strength.

At present, the system is not yet a tropical storm, with sustained winds below 38 mph. It would become a tropical storm when winds reach 39 to 73 mph, and a hurricane when winds exceed 74 mph. Even as a weakened tropical storm or post-tropical system, it could still cause heavy rain, thunderstorms, strong winds, high humidity, and localized flooding.

Unusually warm ocean temperatures off Southern California are increasing the likelihood of tropical development in the eastern Pacific. Sea surface temperatures near Los Angeles County are presently 5 to 10 degrees above average, with readings between 74 and 76 degrees Fahrenheit.

A "super" El Niño is further warming the eastern Pacific, creating favorable conditions for stronger tropical systems. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has predicted a very strong El Niño pattern throughout the upcoming autumn and winter. The Pacific basin is already active, with several tropical systems generating large swells, including Hurricane Karina, which is expected to strengthen while remaining over open water.

Confirmed tropical storm landfalls in California are rare, with the last one occurring in 1939. More recently, Hurricane Hilary caused widespread rain and flooding in Southern California in August 2023. Meteorologists note that tropical cyclones typically lose strength over cooler waters and after making landfall.