‘We’re facing a double whammy’: America’s hottest tinned fish snack is shrinking by nearly half thanks to climate change and war in Iran

Tinned fish is experiencing a surge in global popularity, with sales in the United States reaching over $2.7 billion in 2024, up from $2.3 billion in 2018. Sardines have become the second-most popular canned fish after tuna. However, the supply chain behind this growing demand is facing significant challenges. Morocco, the world's leading sardine supplier, has seen a 46% decline in fish landings between 2022 and 2024 due to a combination of factors.

Warmer ocean temperatures caused by climate change are pushing sardines to new areas, further from Moroccan fishing grounds. Additionally, the ongoing war in Iran has led to a rise in fuel costs, making it more expensive and risky for Moroccan fishermen to travel longer distances to catch the fish. As a result, Moroccan boats are returning with nearly half the quantity of sardines compared to previous years.

The combination of climate change, war-induced fuel price hikes, and reduced fish yields has created a "double whammy" situation for Morocco's sardine industry, with the supply chain facing a substantial risk. This issue extends beyond Morocco, as warmer water temperatures and higher fuel costs are affecting fishing activities worldwide, causing global seafood prices to rise and impacting consumers' budgets across all income levels.