We don't think house prices will rise much, but 'it's a good time to buy'

New Zealanders are less optimistic about house prices rising, but a survey from ASB suggests it's still a good time to buy a property. Currently, only 9% expect future price growth, down from 30% in the summer. A reading of zero would indicate equal split on price movement. Nationwide, 20% believe it's a good time to purchase a house, with Auckland showing the strongest sentiment, although expectations of price increases are low there.

Price growth expectations are higher in Canterbury (23%) and across the rest of the South Island (18%).

ASB's acting chief economist, Kim Mundy, noted that households are closely watching the Reserve Bank and the potential impacts of the Middle East conflict on borrowing costs. Over 60% of New Zealanders anticipate higher interest rates in a year's time, which could limit house price growth and strengthen buyers' negotiating power. Mundy highlighted that the current buying opportunities are "decent," particularly for first-home buyers.

Mundy emphasized that the high number of buyers reflects the abundance of choice in the market, a buyer's market due to high inventory levels. In Auckland, prices remain well below 2021 peaks, offering affordability. Mundy predicts a subdued housing market through 2026, with possible modest price declines in the coming months but gradual improvement by 2027 as fewer New Zealanders move to Australia, population growth increases, and the economy gains momentum.