Trump’s Great White Whale: Canada

President Trump's recent actions have led some to speculate that he may be secretly aligned with Canada's Liberal Party. This theory gained traction after trade talks with Ottawa failed, causing support for Prime Minister Mark Carney's handling of the situation to rise. Canadian respondents in a poll indicated that they believed Carney made the right decision to end negotiations with the U.S. on August 21, despite the resulting new Trump tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports.

Carney has stated that Canada will retaliate with its own tariffs, which are set to take effect on September 8.

Trump has responded to the trade war by threatening to impose 50% tariffs on all car and truck imports from Canada starting in January. He has also suggested changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America, a move aimed at showing who's in charge. However, Canada has its own strategies for inflicting pain, including targeting states in play during the midterm elections, about which Republicans have been warned.

Both the U.S. and Canada recognize that a trade war is detrimental to their respective economies, but they are determined to see the conflict through. Trump's actions have damaged U.S. credibility by picking an unwinnable fight with a neighbor, ally, and important trade partner. This raises questions about whether other countries will trust the U.S. in the future.

Trump's desire to abrogate trade agreements unilaterally has weakened Washington's ability to provide American farmers and manufacturers with access to foreign markets, build international supply chains, and enhance consumer choice and affordability. Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), replacing it with his own U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020. However, he is now seeking to undermine the USMCA as well.