Sudan: Yale Researchers Warn of Major Military Build-Up At Ethiopian Base Near Sudan Border

Amsterdam / Asosa / Ed Damazin — Yale researchers have detected a significant military buildup at an Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) base near the Sudan border, Asosa, between August 23 and 28. The surge in activity, as evidenced by satellite imagery, is believed to be related to a potential counteroffensive by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Ed Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile in Sudan.

Researchers identified approximately 100 new light technical vehicles, including five that appear to have mounted weapons, and 15 armored personnel carriers. These vehicles could potentially carry up to 1,000 personnel, indicating a large force. Additionally, there are five vehicle transporters, 14 trailers, 15 new cargo containers, and at least eight cargo trucks.

The construction of a 70-meter by 17-meter vehicle storage shed further suggests the scale of the buildup. The situation arises amid renewed fighting in Sudan's Blue Nile state, where RSF reportedly launched a counteroffensive on August 10, causing damage to hospitals, bridges, and infrastructure. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) sources suggest that RSF is being resupplied through Asosa airport during its attacks.

While Yale cannot independently verify the RSF's claims, they warn that the military buildup increases the likelihood of an imminent RSF attack on Ed Damazin, potentially causing casualties and displacements among civilians. The research lab also suggests that the build-up might be aimed at diverting SAF forces from North Kordofan, increasing the risk of simultaneous fighting in El Obeid and other areas.