Rising Fed hike bets pressure Indian rupee, oil worries linger

The Indian rupee is anticipated to open lower on Monday, as traders increased their expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike during the upcoming policy meeting. This sentiment was fueled by remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who described the U.S. central bank’s task as "having work to do" if policymakers do not demonstrate confidence in inflation returning to its 2% objective.

Prior to his speech, the probability of a rate hike next month stood at approximately 35%, but it surged to nearly 60% following Warsh's speech. This more aggressive stance from Warsh, compared to his previous references to price stability, has heightened concerns about further rate increases to combat persistent inflation. Consequently, the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields experienced an uptick on Friday, while U.S. equities faced a decline when markets reopened.

Although the impact on Asian currencies was relatively limited, with changes confined to a narrow 0.2% range, the rupee faces additional challenges stemming from the recent geopolitical developments. The Indian rupee is expected to trade within a well-supported range of 95.70-95.80, with the Reserve Bank of India likely to intervene if the currency approaches these levels.