RBI back to rupee's rescue to counter oil, Fed headwinds; steps into swaps too

India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), intervened again on Monday to support the domestic rupee, amid surging oil prices and expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike. The currency traded at 95.44 to the dollar, down marginally from Friday's levels. Opening weaker at 95.49, the rupee briefly dropped to 95.60 before the regular market session started.

The RBI's actions were aimed at stabilizing the rupee, which had been under pressure due to external developments. The central bank's persistent presence had previously helped the currency recover from adverse external shocks. A currency trader at a private sector bank noted that the RBI had been "there right from the start," and many in the market now consider the 95.70-95.80 zone as a key support area for the rupee.

Despite the mounting oil concerns and higher U.S. Treasury yields, the rupee's response to these factors remained muted. The recent escalation between the U.S. and Iran caused crude prices to rise by 3.2% to $90.92, while investors increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike during their September 15-16 meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech on Friday, adopting a more hawkish tone.

The RBI's intervention went beyond the spot market. Bankers revealed that the central bank had also conducted dollar-rupee buy/sell swaps in very short-dated tenures. This move helped alleviate the surge in overnight swap rates, which had risen significantly due to the influx of dollar liquidity from FCNR(B)-related inflows. The ten-day swap rate fell to approximately 0.75 paisa, down from a high of 2.8 paisa on a per-day basis on Friday, and the ten-day spot rate dropped to around 0.60 paisa.