Putin-Modi meeting at SCO: Can Russia-India ties hold?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on Monday, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. The meeting comes amid escalating tensions from the US-Israel war on Iran and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.

India's engagement with the SCO contrasts with its efforts to avoid an anti-Western bloc. This approach is under pressure due to Russia's sanctions and India's US pressure over oil purchases. Former Indian ambassador to the US, Meera Shankar, clarified that India's relationship with Russia is not anti-Western but aimed at securing national interests like energy and defense.

Energy trade has emerged as the most visible shift in India-Russia relations. Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has become India's largest oil supplier, making up a significant portion of India's crude imports. However, this has also increased tensions with the US, which has pressured India to reduce its dependence on Russian oil.

On the defense front, India has been gradually reducing its reliance on Russian military equipment, given Russia's declining production capacity and potential supply issues. However, Russia remains India's largest arms supplier, with New Delhi still dependent on Moscow for access to the Russian market and technology.

Strategically, Russia's ties with China have grown stronger since the start of the Ukraine war. This has reduced Russia's ability to serve as a counterbalance to China, changing India's strategic expectations from its relationship with Russia. Now, the emphasis is on specific interests like energy security, defense supplies, trade and technology, while India's larger strategic partnership remains with the US and its allies.