Putin escalates Ukraine war, convinced losing Donbas means death — The Economist

Russian President Vladimir Putin has escalated the war against Ukraine, driven by an irrational fear that withdrawing from the Donbas region would lead to his own death, according to a report by The Economist on August 30. While Russia's economic and political instability may not be immediately fatal to Putin, the regime's foundational logic dictates that he must never appear weak.

The Russian system tolerates violence but punishes failure. Sources indicate that Putin once threatened his confidants with the statement, "They will hang me." The primary motivation behind this escalation, as with the 2022 invasion, stems from Putin's need to maintain his grip on power and, by extension, his life. However, the erosion of passive public support for the war, lower approval ratings among the Russian elite, and a shrinking base of trust in state propaganda present challenges for the Kremlin.

The prolonged invasion without a decisive victory further complicates the situation, as the Russian elite feels that they are "the emperor has no clothes." In response, Russia is expected to intensify hybrid warfare against Ukraine, targeting European allies and disrupting supply corridors. Western intelligence agencies worry that Moscow may even attempt to strike European defense manufacturing facilities, though they believe Putin seeks to avoid direct military confrontation with NATO.

The Kremlin's interpretation of CIA Director John Ratcliffe's recent visit to Moscow as a sign of American hesitation echoes past events, such as former CIA Director William Burns' visit in 2021 before the 2022 invasion. On May 13, The Financial Times reported that senior Russian commanders convinced Putin that they could secure the entire Donbas region by autumn 2026, a timeline that has been revised multiple times since the beginning of the 2022 invasion.

Recently, Deputy Head of Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa revealed that Russian operational commanders are lobbying the Kremlin to delay the deadline for the Donbas occupation to March 31, 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has maintained that his forces will not yield the Donbas, projecting that Russian forces would need at least two more years to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast and suffer about 800,000 casualties.