Putin escalates Ukraine war, convinced losing Donbas means death — The Economist

Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, is reportedly concerned that ending the war without capturing all of Donbas could result in severe consequences for himself, according to The Economist. Sources close to Putin claim that at some point during the conflict, he told those around him, "They will hang me." The outlet did not specify the circumstances in which he made this statement, nor did they provide additional details.

The article cites polling data and other sources to suggest that discontent with the war is increasing among ordinary Russians, and the mood among the elite is even more dire. The biggest issue, according to one source, is not economic hardship or lack of military success, but the time wasted: nearly five years of fighting can be deemed a failure regardless of the outcome.

A member of Russia’s elite said there is a growing perception that the "tsar is naked." The Russian authorities cannot simply allow the war to continue as it is, as inertia-driven scenarios are unfavorable to the Kremlin, squandering economic resources and political capital. While none of the economic or political problems facing Russia now are fatal for Putin, who still possesses the necessary resources and repressive apparatus to continue fighting, the perception of the war at home is significant.

The Economist suggests that Putin may be guided by the "criminal logic of his regime: never show weakness," leading him to consider escalating the conflict or intensifying sabotage against Ukraine’s allies. Western intelligence agencies believe Russia might strike European factories producing equipment for Ukraine’s military forces, although a direct military confrontation with NATO is considered unlikely.

Russia is also expected to intensify its strikes on Ukraine, with the Defense Ministry already preparing for massive strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.